America Circa 2030: The Boom To Come

The Big Picture - In 2030, there will be 106.8 billion square feet of new development, about 46 percent more built space than existed in 2000- a remarkable amount of construction to occur within a generation. What is equally important, though, is that 97.3 billion square feet of existing space will need to be replaced. In other words, new and replacementrelated development will amount to 204.1 billion square feet, equal to almost 90 percent of the built space that existed in 2000.

At Home, At Work - Between 2000 and 2030, the United States will welcome 82 million new residents. To shelter them, 34 million housing units will need to be constructed, while another 23 million units will need replacement. In addition, nonresidential inventory will grow by 28 billion square feet; 54 billion existing square feet will be rebuilt. This will help accomodate the 60 million full- and part-time jobs that will be created.

Growth Ring - Over the next generation, as during the previous one, the increase in population and employment will favor the South and the West. The two regions will acccount for more than 85 percent of the nation’s growth. Yet in urban areas, metropolitan New York will see the most new and replaced nonresidential development. Coming in second and third will be metropolitan Los Angeles and metropolitan Chicago, respectively.

Follow the Money - About $30 trillion in total new development (including infrastructure) will occur between 2000 and 2030. The South and West will lead the way with $21 trillion between them. In nonresidential development, the South’s $5.3 trillion will dominate; the West and Midwest will have roughly $3 trillion each, with the Northeast adding $2.7 trillion.

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