Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the world must face the harsh reality of climate change, energy, and national security, in part due to Russia’s dominance over oil and gas exports. These intertwined crises, however, provide an unprecedented opportunity to reduce global consumption and accelerate renewable energy technologies for both ecological and political stability.
Until recently, fossil fuels were the world’s primary source of new power because they were cheaper than electricity generated from renewables. However, affordable fossil fuel-generated power prices depend upon geopolitics, availability, the cost of plant construction and operations, and the price of the fuel—extraction, transportation, processing, storage, and then transportation again. In fact, about 40% of the world’s shipping is dedicated to sending fossil fuels around the world to be burned, further contributing to carbon emissions.
Wind and solar energy are already the cheapest source of new electricity generation for much of the world, and they’re getting cheaper each year. Solar and wind power generation are also experiencing explosive growth globally, with solar generation doubling from 2018 to 2021, and wind from 2016 to 2021. Another bonus? Sunlight and wind are delivered free worldwide, so there are no fuel supply chain issues. These renewable energy sources also use minimal rare earths or rare ingredients, and they can’t be withheld or weaponized for geopolitical purposes.
Today, about 30% of the global power sector is supplied by renewable energy—wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro. However, if solar and wind sustain their present course of exponential growth, over 60% of the global power sector will be supplied by renewables in 2030, and we can readily phase out fossil fuels and transition to a zero-carbon power sector by 2040. In the U.S., with sustained solar and wind exponential growth, the power sector will transition to zero carbon by 2035.
Moreover, increasing the demand for solar and wind power will lead to even lower energy prices that drive technological advances, energy generation and equipment efficiencies, and cost-effective new applications. In turn, this innovation—which already includes building-integrated solar glass; ultracapacitors; floating solar farms; and deep-water vertical floating wind farms—creates more demand, and more jobs to accommodate that demand.
The same is true for electricity storage technologies where the price has steadily dropped, declining by 97% over the last three decades.
The Ukraine crisis has given rise to calls for more drilling, fracking, and fossil fuel infrastructure to combat escalating oil and gas prices and achieve geopolitical stability. Realistically, these projects would take years to make any discernible impact and would lock in even more carbon emissions, disregarding the catastrophic consequences outlined in the latest IPCC report.
We can reduce our dependence on oil and gas and have an immediate impact by advancing off-the-shelf, highly affordable renewable energy and equipment technologies. Simultaneously, we can implement zero-carbon building codes (no on-site or off-site oil or gas), policies and incentives for the electrification of transportation and buildings, building efficiency and adaptive reuse, and carbon sequestering sites and materials.
Instead of returning to the destructive impacts of fossil fuel reliance, we must articulate and build our vision for a truly sustainable world. A future of biodiversity and natural resource conservation and regeneration; revitalization of urban centers and towns; diverse and walkable communities designed for climate and energy resilience, transit alternatives, zero carbon built environments; and universal access to parks, public spaces, community institutions, affordable housing, and renewable energy.
The Ukraine crisis is a painful reminder of the security costs of fossil fuel dependency and it serves as another motivating factor to encourage all national and sub-national governments and industries to implement viable decarbonization solutions as quickly as possible. With an impressive foundation in place, now is the time to accelerate the transition to renewables, to be proactive and keep our eyes on the prize.
The views and conclusions from this author are not necessarily those of ARCHITECT magazine or of The American Institute of Architects.
