
As the world’s population continues to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic, experts have been urging us to prepare for the next one. Most alarming is the suggestion that the coronavirus may represent a tipping point, indicating an irrevocable change in the relationship between human communities and the natural world. “A pandemic is a course correction to the trajectory of civilization,” said Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation, in The Atlantic. History reveals how past widespread illnesses led to fundamental societal changes. For example, cholera and tuberculosis spurred the sanitation movement that transformed the design of buildings and cities. According to a recent study by Georgetown University published in a May 2022 Nature article entitled “Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk, the emergence of COVID-19 marks the beginning of a wave of ensuing diseases that will prompt even more profound changes in the built environment.
In the Nature article, biologists Colin Carlson, Gregory Albery, and co-authors outline the results of a multi-year simulation focused on possible wildlife migration patterns and resulting interspecies encounters. Like COVID-19, most pandemics result from zoonotic spillover, a phenomenon whereby a disease carried by nonhuman vertebrates is transmitted to humans. According to the authors, there are at least 10,000 species of virus with spillover potential. Thus far, limited interspecies contact has meant that these diseases have not yet infected people. However, global warming and land-use changes are expected to increase cross-species encounters, multiplying disease transmissions by 2070. The findings are sufficiently harrowing to inspire the term “Pandemicene” to describe such a future reality.

The built environment has long played a role in the emergence and spread of illness. The risk of zoonotic spillover increases when humans encroach on the habitats of other species. Examples include agriculture, transit networks, and constructed settlements that occupy former wilderness areas. For instance, malaria jumped from primates in Central Africa to human populations when people encroached on the primates’ territory some 10,000 years ago. Industrialization and urbanization have made matters worse: nearly half of the world’s pandemics occurred in the 19th century alone due to the rapid expansion of cities and transportation networks. Today, over three-quarters of the Earth’s land (minus Antarctica) has been modified by human activity and development. Scientists now warn that further deforestation and biodiversity loss will increase the chances of even more pandemics. Conservationists and epidemiologists call for protecting the remaining ecosystems from human activity, advocating that new building and infrastructure projects be limited to previously developed areas.
If only the solution were that simple. As Carlson and Albery show, climate change greatly exacerbates the problem. The biologists modeled the future migratory patterns of over 3,100 animal species and were surprised to find that, due to global warming, shifting mobility ranges will result in 300,000 novel interspecies encounters by 2070. Initially, the researchers presumed that animals would migrate toward the colder poles, which would pose less of a problem given their relatively low human populations. However, they realized that many species would seek higher altitudes rather than cooler latitudes. The authors immediately focused on the ecologically biodiverse mountainous regions of tropical Asia and Africa. As wildlife migrates to these populated areas, zoonotic spillover will increase dramatically. Carlson and Albery estimate that, of the predicted interspecies collisions, there will be more than 15,000 new spillover events in the coming decades. Thus, although the cross-species transmission problem has thus far concerned humans encroaching on other animals’ habitats, from now on they will also be coming to us.

So what can architects and urban designers do? It is time to adopt a top-down, holistic perspective to address aspects of resilience, health, and sustainability from a planetary point of view. The AIA’s Climate Plan is an example of a global approach that specifically champions a reduction of climate change-inducing carbon emissions. But carbon is not our only problem, and as Carlson and Albery argue, increased spillover events will continue to occur even if we were to cap atmospheric CO2 at current levels. We need a much more comprehensive plan that accounts for holistic planetary health—such as the planetary boundaries framework offered by the Stockholm Resilience Center. We must contain human development within these limits to achieve true global sustainability. At the same time, we need new design and construction strategies that limit zoonotic spillovers and mitigate the spread of future pandemics within existing communities. For example, wildlife crossings and similar methods that facilitate wildlife migration at a safe distance from humans should be regularly incorporated within development projects. And building envelopes and mechanical systems must be redesigned to reduce—not increase—disease transmission.
The biologists alerting us to a future Pandemicene show that the coronavirus is the symptom of a much larger problem—one of our own making. As human settlements directly affect planetary health, architects and planners must be cognizant of how their choices influence planetary limits—and have access to the right tools to do so.
In Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight For Life (W. W. Norton, 2016), biologist E. O. Wilson advocated that we set aside half the planet for wilderness to protect future biodiversity. But, as the Pandemicene study indicates, we may also need to do so to protect ourselves.
The views and conclusions from this author are not necessarily those of ARCHITECT magazine or of The American Institute of Architects.
Read more on the connection between design and disease:
Shirley Blumberg: Driven by Disease—The COVID-19 pandemic offers lessons architects and designers can use to create a better future, writes the founding partner of KPMB Architects, in Toronto.