AIA’s monthly Architecture Billings Index contracted once again in November, posting a score of 46.3, down 1.2 points from October’s score of 47.5. The ABI is a leading economic indicator of construction activity in the U.S. and reflects a nine- to 12-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending nationally, regionally, and by project type. A score above 50 represents an increase in billings from the previous month, while a score below 50 represents a contraction.
“In previous design cycles, we typically haven’t seen a straight line back to growth after a downturn hits,” said AIA chief economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, in the Institute’s press release. “The path to recovery is shaping up to be bumpier than we hoped for. While there are pockets of optimism in design services demand, the overall construction landscape remains depressed.” New project inquiries decreased—but remained in positive territory—from 59.1 in October to 52.0 in November. However, design contracts went back into negative territory, dropping from 51.7 in October to 48.6 in November.
The month-to-month change in scores for regional billings—which, unlike the national score, are calculated as three-month moving averages—were mixed in November, with three of the four regions continuing to report scores below the threshold of 50. Billings in the Midwest rose 0.7 point to a score of 50.1, while billings in the West decreased 2.1 points to a score of 48.3. Billings in the South rose 0.9 point to a score of 46.7, while billings in the Northeast dropped 6.2 points to a score of 38.7.
The ABI scores mildly contracted in all four individual industry sectors. The commercial/industrial sector decreased 0.5 point to a score of 47.5; the institutional sector decreased 0.3 point to a score of 41.9. The multifamily residential score decreased 2.9 points to a score of 52.2; and the mixed practice sector decreased by 3.2 points to 49.5. Like the regional billings scores, sector billings scores are also calculated as three-month moving averages.
