AIA’s monthly Architecture Billings Index fell but remained positive in November, coming in at 51.0, which is 3.3 points below October's ABI of 54.3. The ABI is a leading economic indicator of construction activity in the U.S. and reflects a nine- to 12-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending nationally, regionally, and by project type. A score above 50 represents an increase in billings from the previous month, while a score below 50 represents a contraction.
Design contracts and new project inquiries also moderated but remained positive in November. New project inquiries posted a score of 59.4 points, falling 3.5 points from October's score of 62.9. Design contracts came in at 55.8 points, down 2.2 points from October's score of 58.0. “The period of elevated billing scores nationally, and across the major regions and construction sectors seems to be winding down for this cycle,” said AIA chief economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, in a press release from AIA. "Ongoing external challenges like labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, spiking inflation, and prospects for rising interest rates will likely continue to slow the growth in firm billings in the coming months.”
The month-to-month changes in scores for regional billings—which, unlike the national score, are calculated as three-month moving averages—fell in November. All four regional billing scores lost ground, with one remaining below 50.0. Billings in the Midwest decreased 4.3 points to a score of 57.6, while billings in the West fell 2.5 points to a score of 50.9. Billings in the South decreased 4.5 points to a score of 53.7, and billings in the Northeast fell 3.1 points to a score of 45.5.
Sector billings scores remained in positive territory, although all four sectors scores fell from their October values. The commercial/industrial sector decreased 6.9 points to a score of 50.5; the institutional sector fell 1.3 points to a score of 50.1. The multifamily residential score decreased 4.4 points to a score of 51.4, and the mixed practice sector fell 1.8 points to a score of 56.9. Like the regional billings scores, sector billings scores are also calculated as three-month moving averages.
