As we bid goodbye to 2020, we know many challenges lie ahead. The past four years have been trying in many ways, but for the architecture, planning, and building community, they also have been an urgent call to action to rapidly decarbonize the building sector. The good news is that the U.S. building sector and built environment are now within reach of achieving zero carbon (CO2) emissions by 2040.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the building sector’s 2020 operating carbon emissions—that is, the emissions from the energy supplied to operate every building in the country—was 27% below 2005 levels. In other words, the building sector not only met the U.S. commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of a 26% to 28% reduction from 2005 emissions levels, but it also achieved the goal five years ahead of the 2025 target date. In fact, the EIA projects that the building sector’s carbon emissions will continue to decline post-pandemic if we just continue on our present course.
How did this happen? Though the U.S. has added more than 50 billion square feet to its building stock, energy consumption in the building sector stabilized in 2005 and has not increased since. Emissions have been dropping significantly because new and existing buildings are designed and constructed more efficiently each year, and because the U.S. has transitioned to cleaner fuels and renewables, the latter of which have become the country’s fastest growing source of electricity generation.
Today the planet’s average global temperature has risen by slightly more than 1°C from pre-industrial levels. Unless the world collectively reduces current levels of global carbon emissions 50% to 65% by 2030—and completely phases them out by 2040—it will likely to pass the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, upon which the devastating impacts of climate change will dramatically escalate.
Since the building sector consumes approximately 74% of the electricity generated in the U.S., the Biden administration’s Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice, which aims for carbon-free electricity by 2035, would reduce the building sector’s carbon emissions further, by about 60% below 2005 levels by 2030. With the addition of federal, state, and local government incentives and policies for energy-efficient building upgrades, electrification, and the adoption of more efficient and zero-carbon building codes, the building sector can achieve a 72% reduction by 2030 and phase out carbon emissions completely by 2040.
The world is already experiencing the devastating impacts of climate change: Higher temperatures are linked to more frequent and intense heat waves and droughts, accelerated sea level rise, inland flooding, crop failures, a longer fire season, and dramatic shifts in animal and plant ranges, not to mention intensifying societal inequalities and conflicts. With solar and wind as now the cheapest and cleanest energy sources in the U.S. and around the globe, limiting average global temperatures to an increase of 1.5°C while addressing energy poverty is both feasible and profitable.
In November, world leaders will meet again in Glasgow at the U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) to establish new 2030 emissions reduction targets. The European Union and the U.K. recently set 2030 carbon emission reduction targets of 55% and 68%, respectively, as compared to their 1990 levels. After the U.S. rejoins the Paris Agreement, it will offer a formal emissions reduction pledge and outline how it will cut emissions by 2030.
With the Biden administration’s climate and clean energy plan and the building sector’s demonstrated emissions reductions, the U.S. can re-establish its international leadership role at COP26 by meeting or exceeding the U.K.’s 68% target and by re-engaging the leaders of the major carbon-emitting nations to join in making 1.5°C global warming–compatible commitments.
Learning how to design, plan, and build for a 1.5°C carbon budget and world is critical. To see the recorded sessions from the Architecture 2030 Teach-In that occurred in September 2020, visit carbon-positive.org.
