The U.S. economy added 190,000 private, non-farm jobs in November according to the monthly employment report released this morning by payroll-management firm ADP and its partner Moody's Analytics. The seasonally adjusted result is 19.1 percent lower than October's addition of 235,000 jobs, and marks an 18.9 percent decrease over the previous November, when 226,000 jobs were created. On a conference call this morning, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, expounded on the underlying pace of job growth, which is currently somewhere between 175,000 to 200,0000 a month—more than double the amount necessary to accommodate new workers entering the labor force.
"The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example," Zandi said in a press release. "There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year." Zandi believes the prospects for an overheated labor market will be a greater risk if the proposed tax legislation makes it way through Congress, and is signed into law by President Trump. Zandi also expects that interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve will rise more quickly now due to the strength of the economy. The Fed had reported that three rate hikes could be expected in 2018, but Zandi believes the board could put an additional, fourth rate hike in place due to market strength.
Small businesses—those with one to 49 employees—gained 50,000 jobs. Within that figure, firms that employ fewer than 20 people gained 14,000 jobs, and firms that have 20 to 49 employees added 36,000 jobs.
Mid-sized businesses—those with 50 to 499 employees—accounted for the largest share of employment gains by company size last month, with 99,000 added positions. Large businesses consisting of 500 employees or more added 41,000 jobs in November. Businesses employing 500 to 999 people added 10,000 positions, while companies with 1,000 or more employees accounted for 76 percent of employment growth for large businesses, adding 31,000 of the total 41,000 jobs added by large businesses in November.
By sector, the service-providing sector—which has anchored the ADP's job report for nine consecutive months—contributed 81.6 percent (155,000) of November's total job gains. The service-providing sector includes jobs in trade/transportation/utilities; information; financial activities, professional and business services; education and health; leisure and hospitality; and other services. Five of the seven subsectors experienced growth in November, with only the information and other services subsectors reporting a decrease of 13,000 and 2,000 jobs, respectively. This is the third consecutive month that the information subsector has lost jobs.
The professional and business services subsector—which includes architecture and engineering firms—has been on an upward trajectory since March. Employment in the subsector continued to grow in November, with 47,000 jobs added in professional and business services, accounting for 30.3 percent of all new jobs added in the service-providing sector.
The goods-producing sector, which includes jobs in natural resources and mining, construction, and manufacturing subsectors, added 36,000 jobs in November—showing continued improvement since June, when the sector reported net-zero job growth due to significant losses in construction and natural resources employment. Manufacturing was the only subsector to report payroll additions in November, however, with the addition of 40,000 jobs. Natural resources and mining reported net-zero job growth last month, after seeing meager growth of 1,000 jobs in September and October. Employment in the construction subsector dropped by 4,000 in November following the significant addition of 62,000 jobs in October, which were attributed to rebuilding efforts in the wake of Hurricane Harvey and Irma. Zandi believes that volatility in the construction subsector is related to the continued effect of the hurricanes. While the sub-sector experienced a slight pause in November, Zandi expects continued gains will pick up in the coming months.
ADP's national employment report is often used as a precursor for the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, which will be released this Friday.
For more information, read the full employment report from ADP.
