If you work in higher education in the U.S., you are likely familiar with the term “enrollment cliff.” This unsettling concept refers to the imminent decline in college matriculations. The math is simple: Based on demographic data, the number of domestic high school graduates will peak in 2025, followed by a 15% drop over the next four years.
Given universities’ reliance upon a healthy student body to sustain their core mission, this is grim news. The phenomenon will be unevenly distributed, as the most desirable and wealthiest institutions are predicted to be less affected than others. Nonetheless, this looming “Darwinian threat” has captured every college administrator’s attention.
The profession of architecture will also be affected. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the architectural field will expand by 5% between 2022 and 2032, with an average of 8,200 new job openings annually. Despite the positive news, this prediction does not reconcile with a 15% dip in college graduates, which will likely reduce the proportion of the youngest entrants to the profession by a similar percentage.
Long-term projections merit even more attention. The recently revised census report points to a second cliff. Although prior estimates suggested that the number of high school graduates would rebound in the next decade, the new numbers reflect another decline from 4.2 million 18-year-olds in 2033 to 3.8 million in 2039—with no increase above 4 million throughout the remainder of this century. (For reference, there were 4.6 million U.S. 18-year-olds in 2008, or 18% more than predicted in 15 years.)
The new forecasts invite thoughtful consideration about the future of the architectural profession. Assuming the proportion of 18-year-olds pursuing architectural careers remains constant, the profession faces a significant aging phenomenon similar to the U.S. population. This older demographic, which has been growing five times faster` than the overall population, will continue to need architectural services. This projected mismatch between market demand and the supply of entry-level professionals should motivate the profession to plan accordingly. Here are a few crucial variables and their consequences.
Immigration
Increased immigration could make up some—but not all—of the predicted gap in the 18-year-old population. In compiling its new statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau generated a “high immigration” model that increases the foreign-born immigration population by 50%. Even with this significant hypothetical uptick, the high school graduate population is still anticipated to decline. However, after a low of 4 million in 2039, this population could rebound to 4.3 million by 2050. The U.S. is a popular destination for foreign-born architects-to-be, who can help diversify and broaden established industry perspectives. Universities can play a significant contributing role in conferring professional degrees to international applicants, streamlining their pathways to U.S. licensure. That said, the profession and academy have limited agency over immigration policy, which is subject to the whims of larger cultural and political currents.
Recruiting
Attracting a larger proportion of existing high school graduates to pursue architectural careers is another approach to diminishing the severity of the demographic cliff on the architectural profession. Compared with many fields of study, architecture is mainly absent in U.S. K-12 education and, therefore, misses an early opportunity to attract potential architects-to-be. Although the AIA tracks K-12 programs nationwide, like summer camps and workshops, architecture remains a peripheral subject and should be better integrated into the core K-12 curriculum. The rapid growth of the U.S. architectural services market, which is expected to expand by 4.2% between now and 2030, should be compelling news for students considering architectural careers—but this market growth will also exacerbate the projected talent pool gap. A successful push to incorporate architecture into K-12 curricula may be necessary to fill this gap, absent other factors.
Automation
One estimate suggests that AI could automate up to 37% of architecture and engineering tasks such as “data entry, basic customer service roles, and bookkeeping.” The idea of automation replacing human workers is an unpalatable prospect in many industries. Architecture, which relies heavily on creativity, nuanced problem-solving, and sophisticated interpersonal skills, is an unlikely territory for computation to replace people. The U.S. Career Institute corroborates this suggestion, ranking architecture among the jobs least vulnerable to automation risk. Nevertheless, busy firms that cannot fill vacancies may proactively pursue AI strategies to automate everyday tasks. Suppose automation can satisfy less glamorous operational needs (like data entry or bookkeeping). In this case, the fact that company employees might focus on the more creative aspects of the business is a positive outcome. However, given the field's relative lack of automatability, AI is unlikely to fill the gap resulting from a 15% or greater drop in entry-level employees.
Inaction
If the U.S. architecture profession does nothing to respond to the coming demographic shortfall, it faces the erosion of its market share from outside competition. Presuming the bullish growth projections hold for the industry, architecture will face an employee shortfall that will diminish its capacity to meet the corresponding demand. As a result, adjacent domestic fields such as engineering or construction management may fill the resulting gaps. Furthermore, U.S. clients may increasingly look to foreign firms in countries with healthy populations or less domestic demand to satisfy the need for U.S.-based design services. This is not a favorable scenario, and it includes much speculation. Nonetheless, because the demographic cliff prediction is based on the simple math of domestic births—a reality we can readily measure—we must fully anticipate this change.
Inaction, therefore, is not an acceptable response. Architecture must plan now for the coming talent shortfall.
